Pistons Preview

UP-UPDATE: It looks like Sheed and Rip are actually a no go for tonight's game. Anything helps.

UPDATE: Nate will not change the starting lineup for tonight's game against the Pistons. Rudy will start just as he has the last 3 games.

Tonight’s game vs the Pistons, looks to be a difficult one. The Pistons are on a 7 game win streak, and are definitely not the same team we saw a couple months ago when we pulled out a win at Detroit. Rodney Stuckey has began to emerge a real player, and him and Iverson are playing very well together in the backcourt right now. It also sounds like Detroit will get Richard Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace back from injury tonight. So the Blazers will definitely have their hands full.

With Brandon Roy still out McMillen has toyed with the idea of starting Bayless at the 2. With the second unit struggling without Rudy, Nate says he might opt to start Bayless and hopefully bolster our second group. Another rotation idea that Nate has toyed with is moving Outlaw back to the 4. This would effectively all but end the playing time for Frye and Diogu, but Batum would likely see an increase in minutes, and after the way he played vs the Lakers on Sunday, I say he deserves it. It will be interesting to see what Nate goes with.

Keys to the Game

1. Keep Their Guards Out of the Paint.
1. Neither Stuckey or A.I. are considered great shooters, so most of their points and assists are generated off dribble penetration. Stuckey will be a tough matchup for Blake, but we need to really step up tonight. Bayless should have a great matchup with the undersized Iverson at the 2. I am interested to see how Bayless responds.
2. Score Consistently
1. Hopefully moving Rudy back to the 2^nd team will bring us some more offense. We will lose this game if we have another drought like we did against New Orleans and L.A.
3. Blake Must Hit His Open Shots
1. With Roy out, if Blake doesn’t hit his open shots, then you can pretty much seal the deal.

Gambler’s Corner

The spread for tonight’s game is Blazers by 3.5 with an O/U of 177. I think the Blazers will bounce back after a loss to L.A. with an inspired effort after 2 days off, so I will take them and over. Although Detroit plays at the 5th slowest pace in the NBA, I think the Blazers (especially Outlaw) will find their stroke tonight to get us up over the top.

Goose is also taking the Blazers and the Over.

The winner of last games (Hornets) score prediction was Hendrix! We now have 3 contestants on the board. We will announce the winner at the end of the month after the Blazers vs. the Jazz on the 31st.

Darius Miles Update Part 2

Darius Miles has officially been waived by the Memphis Grizzles. However, Darius did play 7 minutes in the first half of Memphis game last night, so that brings the number down to 8.

I would like to clarify a statement I made in the previous Darius update, previously I stated that any player can only be signed to (2) 10-day contracts before it is required to guarantee that players contract. That is false. A team is only required to sign a player to guaranteed contract for the remainder of the year only if THAT PARTICULAR team has signed a player to (2) 10-day contracts. So in theory, every team in the NBA could sign Darius to (2) 10-day contracts and he could never have a guaranteed contract. This is slightly less appealing then the scenario I previously posted, but I think it is still a long shot.

But to be honest what are we worrying about? Even if Darius goes back on our books, we will still be ok. If you add together the contracts that the Blazers are obligated to pay next season, and we assume the salary cap stays the same (usually goes up every year, but because of the recession it is expected to stay or maybe even lower a little), the Blazers will still be $25 mil under the salary cap.

There are (4) players that the Blazers must make a decision on for next season. They are:

Steve Blake ($4.0 mil)

Travis Outlaw ($3.6 mil)

Channing Frye ($12.9 mil Hold on cap space until we renounce rights to him or he signs with someone else)

Ike Diogu ($12.0 mil Hold on cap space until we renounce rights to him or he signs with someone else)

So as one can logically assume we will keep Blake and Outlaw, bringing our available free agent cash down to 17.40 mil. This is enough to sign a superstar caliber player, but to be honest, there aren’t any out there to be had this offseason. For a good breakdown of the summer 2009 free agents, check out this article by ESPN’s Chad Ford. Tell me there is one guy in there you would want to pay 17.40 mil to next year? I don’t see it.

So let’s assume Miles does come back on our books, that leaves us with 8.40 mil. That is still plenty of money to sign a quality role player. As you will notice with NBA salaries solid, veteran role players are usually in the $5-$10 mil range. So if we wanted to go that route we could.

Another scenario, is the Blazers could broker a trade for a “superstar”. With our combination of young, cheap talent, and $8.40 mil of wiggle room under the cap, pretty much any player in the NBA could fit onto our roster (financially). Granted this is a little more difficult then just signing a free agent out right, but none the less an option to consider.

Last point I would like to make is, when my man crush Pritchard took over and began making these moves, he had a plan. And that plan originally included having Darius on our books this summer. Any of you that have listened and read as much about what Pritchard says, knows that he has been circling this summer on his calendar for years. So there is no way that he is not going to have a plan for every single scenario, not to mention the time in between the end of the season (when he will know about Darius being on our books or not) and the beginning of free agency (early July).

Bottom line is I have complete faith in our management to make the best move possible with the information available. A move that in KP’s words “doesn’t sacrifice that long term for the short term”. I’ll drink to that.

-Kyle

David Lee Trade Talks

So if you haven’t already heard a trade rumor involving the Blazers yesterday was tearing up the web. I was going to make a post on it, but I had already made two for the day and had some stuff to take care of. So now I bring it to you.

The deal involved bringing David Lee to Portland from the New York Knicks. I heard various different scenarios, but one that seemed to make the most sense was this (Click link and it will take you to the ESPN trade machine that I did. Also, not shown in a 1st round pick from the Blazers to the Clippers. I think this would be the most logical and fair deal involving the key names mentioned. I would do that in a heart beat as a Blazer fan, would you?

Apparently there were reports that the Blazers front office is “enamored” with Lee, and think he would fit perfect into what we are doing here. I agree, I think he would be a great fit, but there are two drawbacks that I can see. 1. Lee is a restricted free agent this summer, which means if we traded for him, we could match any offer he receives and retain him. Sounds good right? But what if someone throws a max deal at him? Is he worth that much? Then we not only lose Frye and Sergio for nothing, but also a 1st round pick. 2. Lee has stated publicly more then once that he wants to be a starter. And I can guarantee that he will not start in front Aldridge.

Here is an interesting exerpt from Chad Ford’s chat today on ESPN.

“Nick (NYC): Chad, what have you heard on this David Lee to Portland stuff?? Wouldn't Lee for Jerryd Bayless and a first rounder be a great deal for both teams??



Chad Ford: Portland has interest in Lee. But honestly, Portland has interest in all of the good young players in the league. Kevin Pritchard is very proactive and likes to collect assets. The Knicks would probably be interested in that deal ... Bayless and a first rounder. The problem is, Portland's not offering that. I think they're not willing to give up that much for Lee. I think Lee will be gone by the trade deadline, but I'm not sure it will be Portland.”

Sounds like classic Pritchard to me, which is what I love about him. He never puts all his eggs in one basket, and is constantly turning over every rock (and sometimes the same rock over and over again) to better this team. Could it be smoke screen? Remember that every deal the Blazers have ever pulled off, there have been no rumors prior the transaction. Every single time the first time you hear about the deal, it is imminent. Pritchard plays his cards very close to the chest, so I would highly doubt that a deal for Lee is in the near future. Not to say it will never happen, just not right now.

But this stirs the pot a little for me and begins trade talk and speculation (one of my favorite things to do/talk about). So what do you think about David Lee to Portland? Good fit? If not him, then who would like to see? Who would you like to give up? Post some ideas, and we can discuss why or why not those players coming to Portland is a reality or just a dream.

As always, thanks for reading my blog, and I look forward to hearing your thoughts!

-Kyle