Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Thanksgiving

There has been a lot of negative stuff floating around Blazerland lately. So I thought in light of the upcoming holiday, everyone could post something that they are happy with (thankful for) that has to do with this years Blazers. Make it as short as long as you'd like!

I'm thankful that Lamarcus has finally brought the game he has talked about the last 3 years. Yes, his numbers are up, but to truly appreciate what he's doing you have to watch the games. He is finally becoming the all around player we've always asked for and I don't think he's getting enough props for it.

Your turn!

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Oden

No way. Seriously. No way.

That is all I could think when I heard last night about Oden. It felt like a cruel joke. Because there is no way someone could be that subjective to injury. No way, after battling all the way back, arguably a month before he’s back to normal, he needs to have season ending surgery. I found myself wishing I sucked at reading (I’m actually a phenomenal reader, shout out to Reading Rainbow) so I could be wrong. Felt like my eyes were betraying me the same way Oden’s knees betrayed him. So where do we go from here?

First, those of you familiar with the business world know the term “sunk cost”. A sunk cost is a way to analyze a future investment. Basically the idea is you cannot look at what you have already invested in a project, player, etc. as part of your decision making. What’s gone is gone. What makes the most sense from this point forward? Well, I think that is the same approach the Blazers need to take with Oden. We can’t talk about all the time and money we’ve invested into him already, because to be honest that has no bearing on his future success. Bottom line is the deal we give him (or do not give him) needs to be treated like we were signing the guy away from another team. A fresh start. And in a way, isn’t that what Oden needs the most?

We have a few options, and to find out even more, I sent a question into an ESPN chat with Hollinger today. No big deal, we are pretty tight.

Kyle (Portland)

If the Blazers make the $8.8 mil qualifying offer to Oden and no one else signs him to an offer sheet, do the Blazers have the option of negotiating a deal for less annually then the qualifying offer?

John Hollinger
(2:49 PM)


Yes. He can either take the QO, negotiate a deal with the Blazers for any other amount/years, or sign an offer sheet with another team.

So basically if we do not extend the qualifying offer to him, he is an unrestricted free agent and any one can sign him for whatever. If we do extended the qualifying offer, he can do one of 3 things that Hollinger details. This is a tough decision, and I don’t envy Rich Cho and company on this one. I think the answer lies in Brandon Roy’s knees and how we perform for the rest of the year. Or at least it allows that extra time to gather more information, plus remove ourselves emotionally from this news.

Bottom line is we have played more games without Oden then with Oden, so it’s not like we don’t know how to do it, and how to do it successfully. The thing it does change is our championship outlook. It’s clear that we are one superstar/all-star away from truly competing in the west. Not sure where we are going to get that guy, but what we do know is we can no longer look to Oden to fill that role.

In a weird way, after the initial shock wore off, I almost felt relieved. Relieved of the fact that our championship aspirations more or less rested on Oden’s brittle knees. That is no longer the case. We know now that we can no longer hold our breaths on him. If he stays and turns into a great player, bonus. That’s all it is. And I think that’s the attitude Cho and company need to have moving forward.

One last note. I truly feel sad for Oden. The guy has wanted nothing but to play good basketball and be liked. Hollinger (my boy) did a good job reminding us of that in his article today on ESPN. In particular this excerpt:

“The defining moment, for me, remains a little less than a year ago in a game against Houston. Oden was lying on the Rose Garden Arena floor, with his kneecap several inches lower on his leg than kneecaps are supposed to be, and his first instinct was not to wonder, "Why me?" or to angrily curse the basketball gods.

It was to tell Roy, "I'm sorry."

If that isn’t Oden stay in Portland in a nutshell, I’m not quite sure what is.

PS – One more trip down memory lane

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Pistons Game/Random Thoughts

Didn’t see the game last night cause I was at the Mayer Hawthorne show. If you don’t know about him, learn about him. Good music. Great show. Party.

Here are some random Blazer thoughts/box score assumptions.

-Has Aldridge ever played better then he is right now? He is easily our best player right now. Yes 2 years ago he caught fire after the all star break, but even then he wasn’t playing D like he is this year. His defensive rotations/help D have gone to a completely different level. The light bulb that everyone was waiting for finally went on. I hope this is a sign of things to come.

-How depressing is it, that before we are all said and done Aldridge might be the best/most consistent player in our “Big 3”?

-Bad news about Roy this AM, but it does explain a lot. Knee drained twice already in 3 weeks? Gotta be making Portland’s front office nervous….

-Jerryd Bayless had a nice game last night with 15 and 9 dimes in only 19 minutes. I hope he does well, just not against us.

-Sounds like Rudy played pretty good last night, who would have thought he would revert back to rookie year Rudy after this summer? He’s definitely showing me something so far this year.

-Still no return date for Oden, I’m ok with that until about January. Then I start getting nervous.

-At what point do you have to start questioning Portland’s training staff/medical staff? I’d buy it if it wasn’t the same injuries over and over again. Fractured/dislocated patellas on Oden, Pryz, and Pendergraph with one calendar year? Webster and Outlaw both fractured their feet? Even if we think they are doing a good job (which is seriously a question) wouldn’t it be worth cleaning house and trying something new? Isn’t that worth it when you have $75 million/annually invested into these players? And you are hesitant to let the medical/training staff, who probably makes a combined $1-2 mil a year TOPS, go? Seems like a no brainer to me.

-With all this news out of the gate, do you guys still think a trip to the second round is viable? Let me know what you think.

Monday, November 8, 2010

Lakers/Roy Thoughts

Blazers never even stood a chance in a game versus the Lakers. It was a not so gentle reminder of how far we truly are from competing for a title. The Lakers basically did anything they wanted, and dictated every aspect of the game. Yes, we just played our 5th game is 7 days, but you’d like to at least see a little something out of our guys. If you can’t get pumped up to player the Lakers, then I’m not really sure what to tell you.

A bigger topic right now has to be Brandon Roy. I can remember the days when losing by less then 20 in LA would be a victory, and Brandon Roy has brought us a long way from there. So I want to give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s played some amazing basketball for us. Saying that, it’s hard to accept him not trying. He is a max player for a reason. He is required to bring it every night, not just when he’s feeling especially good. He needs to be the guy that pulls us out of a slump. That’s what comes with the territory of a max deal. Just like in real life, your manager gets paid more cause he has more responsibility. No way you get a huge raise and the expectations don’t rise as well. Life just doesn’t work like that.

Jason Quick had an interesting article in today’s Oregonian about Roy. He seems to be frustrated by what the fans are asking of him. Fans that asked him to play more off the ball. Fans that asked him to do this and do that, and he feels that he is trying to do that, but then fans change their mind and want the old Roy back. My reply to that? Fans don’t know crap! Why the hell would you listen to what the everyday caller on 95.5 has to say!?! You have forgotten more about basketball then they have ever known! Just play your game.

However at some point I do have to question Roy. You notice how the top guys always add stuff to their game? A counter move to their favorite move, a post game, etc…Has Roy truly added anything in the last 2-3 years? His 3pt % and FT % actually went down last year from the year prior. What is Roy doing to counter the defenses that are geared to stop him? I’m not sure its much of anything…

Roy preaches team and says all the right things, but I am truly beginning to question his true intentions. If he is going to pout because Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw were traded, or because Miller doesn’t defer to him, then how selfish is that? How little does that say “team player”? And does he honestly expect everyone below him to buy into that?

I keep waiting for the light to go on for Roy the same way it did Kobe, Lebron, Garnett, etc…I just hope it does before those knees go out.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Game 2 - Clippers

Good win on a back to back for the Blazers. Even though it was the Clippers, never underestimate a team on their opening night at home. They played with good energy, but it helped that Kaman and B Diddy shot horribly from the field. Some thoughts.

-Blazers are killers on the boards. And we don’t even have Oden and Pryz. It’s scary to think about how we will be when we get two of the top 5 rebound rate (# of rebounds they collect as a % of the total number available when they are in the game) guys in the league back. We could be devastating.

-Wesley Matthews had a really tough game, but I wouldn’t say a horrible one. That’s the nice thing about guys who do something else besides score, they can affect the game when their shot is off. Also his stats are a little mis leading, as he found himself with the ball in his hands at the end of shot clock multiple times for unexplained reasons. Someone would dump him the ball with 3 seconds left and he was forced to get something up. So take his horrible FG% with a grain of salt.

-Roy started off hot again, racking up 18 in the first half. Then went silent for a lot of the 2nd half. Interesting to note that the 3rd quarter was probably our worst quarter (and Roy’s most laid back). I feel like in years past we’ve let teams back in the game because we relax, and guess where that comes from? Roy. Hopefully this is something he figures out sooner then later. Because as much as I like them, we can’t rely on 15-3 4th quarter runs every game.

-Batum has more then impressed me so far this season. I thought he’d be good, but I think his 3 point shot has gotten even better. He is now a guy that I borderline expect to make an open corner 3. Couldn’t have said that last year.

-Aldridge hasn’t been flashy but I still think he’s getting it done. With 19 and 10, he has been more aggressive on the glass, which is great. He just needs to find that fine line of using his jumper to setup his inside game, not using the inside game to setup the jumper.

-Andre Miller played really good, in the stagnant 3rd quarter he made a concerted effort to get to the rim (not always successfully) but that’s what I like to see out of somebody else then Roy. Someone noticing the slump and knowing how to break it. Great player, awkward fit.

-Armon Johnson was somewhat of a non-factor tonight, which is to be expected from a 2nd round rookie.

- Camby continues to impress. He CRUSHED the offensive glass, and you could argue that’s the reason we won.

Overall not a bad game considering it was a back to back and it was the Clippers season opener at home. Hard to match that energy sometimes, but the Blazers did just enough to get the win, and that’s what matters.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Oden Article

Thought this was an extremely interesting read.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/20749/the-unkept-promise-of-greg-oden

Game 1 - Phoenix Suns

Not a bad first game for the Blazers. Phoenix kept it close the entire time, but the late 4th quarter flurry put them away for good. Here are a few things that I really liked about the game.

-Roy looked quick, in rhythm, and more springy then I can remember him at any point last year. His shooting was very good, and it didn’t even require him to take the ball to the hoop (even though I would have liked to see him do that with the Suns being so soft in the middle).

-Wesley Matthews is absolutely going to play 30+ minutes a game for the Blazers. For Blazer loyalists, he is like James Jones times 5. They both do so many little things that you don’t realize until you watch them play. Tipping OReb’s, helping on the pick and roll and recovering. Moving out to the 3 point line at the right time to space the floor. He is an absolute beast, and if he keeps playing like this, is absolutely worth the contract he got.

-Batum was active as usual, but where it really stood out to me, was he was mixing it up down low a lot more. In the past his activeness was mostly on the perimeter and in the passing lanes, but last night he was in there scrapping for rebounds, loose balls, and what seemed like everything in between. It could just be the fact that we were playing Phoenix who doesn’t block out particularly well, and is small, but regardless it is still a good sign to me. If Batum can keep that up, between him and Wesley that is going to gain us an extra 5+ possessions a game. Something a team who slows down the pace so much highly covets.

-Even though it was a dog fight for most of the game, I was impressed with how the Blazers didn’t do their usual, go down my 12, make a run, go ahead by 4, then go down by 8 again. They had a nice pace through the entire game, instead of the big swings. Hopefully that’s not just because it was Phoenix.

-I really hope Roy doesn’t have to play 40 minutes a game for us.

-I liked our “backup” PG role of Rudy, Roy and Wes Matthews out there at the same time a lot more then I thought I would. Rudy did a good job of bringing the ball up and initiating the offense. A reason I like it even more is, that is that is exactly the type of role he has been pining for. Even though after seeing how he has played so far this year, maybe we want Rudy to be sad.

-Can’t say enough about Armon Johnson. I can tell in 1 game that he is better then Bayless will ever be as a PG. He had a few mistakes, but good mistakes if that makes sense. He made mistakes trying to go to the rim. Not stepping on the sideline after he catches the ball type of mistakes. What I really was impressed with was how quickly he moved, while appearing to be in complete control the entire time. Never seemed off balance (like Bayless), never seemed to not know what his out was if it didn’t work. Pretty impressive for a 2nd round rookie huh?

-Take it easy on Aldridge, he got doubled pretty much as soon as he caught the ball all night. He did the right thing and passed out. Took him a while, but eventually he began getting involved without the ball on the boards. Loved that. I feel like I’ve already seen him put his shoulder into guys more in that game then almost all of last year. Hopefully he keeps it up against bigger teams.

-Marcus Camby is really good. He changes the game way more then the casual basketball fan can see/comprehend. Gotta hand it to KP, that was an absolute fleecing last year getting him for Outlaw and Blake. That’s a trade that would have gotten vetoed in about 15 mins in my fantasy league.

Overall I was pleasantly surprised with game 1. After all the media talking about our sluggish pre season, I was beginning to get worried. And without the games on TV, I couldn’t do my own eye check. Well after game 1 most of my anxieties were relived. Though it’s early, I liked the energy, the body language, and demeanor of this team. And we don’t even have Oden and Pryz yet. Plus they covered the spread. Sup $10.

Oh and lastly, how fun was it to watch Blazer basketball again? Forgot how much I loved it.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Problem Problems

I know it’s been a while, but there is something that is bugging me after watching the Denver game last night. The difference between us and Denver right now? (You could arguably throw Utah in that mix too) Their top scorers get to their spots, and ours don’t. What I mean is, how many times did Aldridge get pushed so far off the block he ended up shooting a 19ft fadeaway? How many times did Brandon Roy get to the rim? How many times did Roy even get within 15 ft of the basket?


Now ask yourself, how many times did Melo get the ball on the wing or around the elbow where he likes to pull that quick jumper over his defender? Granted we did a good job of forcing him into turnovers and he didn’t get to the rim. But his mid-range jumper is pretty much his bread and butter. How many times did Nene catch the ball EXACTLY where he wanted to be, and where he is comfortable, on the block?


There-in lies the difference. And that’s why B Roy shot 3-13. He never got to his spots where he is at his best/most comfortable. Why not? Well because the Nuggets basically threw 2-3 defenders at him. Now any of you who have played basketball, even at the 8th grade level, know that when someone is double teamed, don’t stand in the corner jumping up and down asking for the ball. There is a good reason you are that open. Because it is near impossible to get you the ball! You need to cut, give your guy a lane to get you the ball! Instead I saw the Blazers WAY too many times stand in the corner, or run out to damn near half court to bail out Brandon. Let me ask you this, how easy is that to prep for if you are Denver? They have to be laughing to themselves, that Portland allows you to gamble, and send 2 defenders at Roy and Aldridge, and they never make you pay. I would double all the time too! All Portland does, is get doubled, pass it back out up top, maybe try to get it to the guy again, then force up a bad shot cause it’s late in the shot clock. Not going to win too many games like that.


I like Nate, but sometimes his offense is embarrassingly pedestrian and predictable. It is no coincidence that when it comes down to crunch time, and we need a bucket and the bad guys are digging their heels in, that we are going to try to iso Roy. Everyone in the league knows that. Why not throw them a curveball?!? What is the biggest advantage of being on offense as opposed to defense? It’s that the offense knows what they are going to do (or at least try to do), and the defense has no idea and is forced to react. We are giving that advantage away every single time we run an Iso play, or clear things out for Roy. And until we figure out a way for us to move past that, I just don’t see how we win anything bigger then 1 or 2 playoff series.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Miller Trade

With today's news of Andre Miller and Nate getting into a shouting match, I just began thinking of possible trade possibilities. What do you think about this?

Blazers get:
Caron Butler
Raymond Felton (expiring contract, so we get him on a test run type basis)
Brenden Haywood (expiring contract, so a stop gap at the C position until next year, and possibly a leg up on resigning him if przy opts out)

Washington Gets:
Andre Miller (A cheap fill in for an absent Gilbert Arenas, and a good player who worse case, they have for one more year)
Travis Outlaw (expiring contract, saves them 3.5 mil next year by getting out from Caron butler's contract)
Martell Webster (a cheap fill in for Caron Butler, still has potential to be a great NBA player)


Charlotte Gets:
Steve Blake (expiring deal close to what Felton makes)
Nicolas Batum (A player they wanted very badly, and was the deal breaker in a Gerald Wallace deal last year)

Why the blazers do it:
Caron butler finally gives the blazers a consistant reliable 3rd (sometimes 2nd) scoring option. Also a very solid parimeter defender. Granted we lose all of our backup 3's, but cunningham can fill spot minutes there this year along with Rudy and roy. We bring over Victor Claver next season from Spain, and start grooming him as a backup 3......or we use our mid-level exemption next year to sign matt barnes to a deal to be our backup 3. It clears that log jam, and allows us to get more role players. We get a free look at Felton at the PG to see if he is the answer, if not, no big deal, we cut bait and find someone else, or worst case resign blake after the season. Why not?