Jazz Preview

Tonight’s game versus the Jazz is a big one for the Blazers. Utah has been on a bit of a slide and have only won 4 of their 10 games. They are currently 9th in the west, putting them just out of the playoffs. Tonight’s will not only distance ourselves more from Utah in the division race and the playoff race. 

We have another huge bonus in the fact that Andrea Kiralinko is out indefinitely after getting ankle surgery earlier this week. Carlos Boozer is still out with a hurt knee. So the chance for us to get a win increases even more. However, Steve Blake is expected to be out again. So what are the keys to the game? Here is this humble man’s 2 cents.

1. Keep Deron Williams Out of the Paint

We need to make sure Deron Williams doesn’t beat us with his penetration. That opens up everything for the Jazz (especially Okur).

2. Play Tough

Since Jerry Sloan has been coaching the Jazz (since before I was born) the Jazz have been known as a tough hard nosed team. This years version of the team is no different. Paul Milsap has stepped in nicely during Boozer’s absence. So we need make sure we block him out and don’t let him beat us on the boards.

3. Win the Rebound Battle

We need to make sure and out-rebound the Jazz. It will go a long ways in securing a Blazers win.

Gambler’s Corner

Blazers -9.5

Over/Under 200

I am going to go with the Jazz. I think the Blazers will win, but I think it will be a close one. I am also going with the under because I think that it will turn into a halfcourt possession oriented game. 

My Favorite, Trade Talk!

So Jason Quick (Oregonion Beat Writer for the Blazers) that he was aware of a trade with an eastern conference team that involved us getting a PG and SF (which he think would take us from playoff contender to championship contender soon) and us giving up Raef, and two, non-starting rotation players. You can check out the chat here.

There has been a lot of speculation on the message boards, and the most popular idea is Hinrich and Deng for Raef, Sergio and Outlaw. From a talent point of view I would do this in a heartbeat. But there has been some speculation about if this trade could work because Deng is a Base Year Compensation player. This is basically something to close a loophole in trades, so a team can’t just sign a free agent to X amount of $ just to turn around and trade him. But even though it is true that it is hard to trade BYC players, we could actually do it. And you know I busted out my spreadsheet to figure this one out. This is what I came up with…

So when you trade a BYC player you can only take back 125% +100,000 of 50% of his current salary. So in Deng's case it would be:

$9,385,000 * 50% = $4,692.500
$4,692.500 + Hinrich's salary of $10 Mil = $14,692,500
($14,692,500 * 125%) + $100,000 = $18,465,625

Which is the maximum $ amount Chicago can take back.

BUT the Blazers have to be able to absorb his entire salary ($9,385,000). That with Hinrich's gives us a total receipt of $19,385,000

Now when you add up all of our contracts:

Raef = $12,722,500
Outlaw = $4,000,000
Sergio = $874,000

You get a total of $17,596,500. So the max Portland could absorb is:

($17,596,500 * 125%) + $100,000 = $22,095,625

So to summarize:

Max Chicago Could Absorb = $18,465,625
Max Portland Could Absorb = $22,095,625

ACTUAL Amount Chicago Would Absorb = $17,596,500
ACTUAL Amount Portland Would Absorb = $19,385,000

So as you can see, the numbers would work....

Let me know what you guys think. Would you do this?

Bobcats Recap

It was just announced that Brandon Roy was named to his 2nd consecutive All-Star game. For the rest of roster check it out here.

Revenge exacted. The Blazers used a dominant run at the end of the first quarter to exact their revenge against the Bobcats, whom they lost to in Charlotte 12 days ago. Granted, they did not have their best player in Gerald Wallace, and they were on a 2^nd night of a back to back (where the beat the Lakers in double OT), but hey a wins a win. And trust me, no one feels sorry for you in the NBA. Even though Portland shot horrible from 3 (2-15; 13.3%) and had 19 turnovers, we still beat them by 14. That’s how tired they were. Good news is we dominated them on the boards 45-26 (with 10 more offensive then them). It’s good to see the Blazers winning these games over teams we should be beating. I really like that none of them have really been close or the fact that I never got the feeling that we had a real chance to lose. That is a mark of a good team.

Individual Performances

LaMarcus Aldridge:

LA started off hot from the field. He hit 9 of his first 11 shots and started the Blazers spark early. He ended the game with 25 points and 9 boards on 11-15 from the field. After last game, I thought LA would come out and establish himself early, he definitely didn’t disappoint.

Greg Oden:

So where are all you Oden haters now? Oden played yet another stellar game against some above average competition in Emeka Okafor. Oden finished with 14 points, 14 boards, and 3 blocks. Each game Oden looks more and more active and dominate. He is a killer on the offensive glass, and what’s scary is one could argue he is not even 100% yet. Now we are beginning to see why there was so much hype surrounding him. I can’t wait to see what he does in the 2^nd half of the season.

Brandon Roy:

Roy, who always has a hard time vs. Raja Bell, ended with a solid 17 points, 3 assists, and 2 boards. Not your typical Roy game, but what’s awesome about Brandon is, instead of forcing things, he defers to teammates who may have a better matchup that night. He is unselfish and doesn’t force things until he absolutely has to (4^th quarter). Fortunately we didn’t need it tonight. Also I will keep you posted, but the All-Star reserves are announced tonight and if Brandon Roy isn’t on the team then I will punch every Western Conference Coach in the face (verbally).

Sergio Rodriguez:

Sergio brought his usual stuff tonight. Nothing he did stood out to me either way, good or bad. Maybe that’s a good thing from your point guard?

Rudy Fernandez:

Besides an awesome reverse ally-oop, Rudy wasn’t much of a factor on offense tonight. He did have quite a few plays on defense though which is good to see. I am glad even though he is wearing down a bit, he still manages to be a factor. I think that says a lot about Rudy and his long term potential.

Nicholas Batum:

Batum played good tonight and did his usual long-armed thing. It is always hard to judge how Batum played by looking at the box score because he does so many of the little things for this team. But another solid game from the 20 year old rookie.

Jerryd Bayless:

Believe it or not Bayless was intense tonight. You could argue that he sparked the run to end the first quarter with his inspired play. It was nice to Bayless hit a few outside jumpers tonight including a 3. He was 4^th on the team tonight in scoring with 11.

Travis Outlaw:

I liked Outlaw’s game tonight because even though his shot wasn’t falling he still hustled and contributed. Travis ended with 5 boards and 3-3 from the line. He played with good energy and hustle tonight. Now if we could just get this out of him on the nights he is hitting too, we’d be on to something.

Joel Przybilla:

The Thrilla only played 17 minutes tonight but did a decent job. He only had 2 boards and block, but brought solid D against Okafor.

Channing Frye:

Frye played really hard for 2 minutes, and looked average.

Shavlik Randolph:

How come anytime I see Shavlik play, all I can think about is him in the fetal position on an airplane?

Game Summary: Got out early, and never looked back.

Bobcats Preview

Hey guys, I am a little backed up right now, so I will try to get a full game preview out sometime this afternoon, but if I can't here is the gambler's corner info.

Gambler's Corner:

Blazers -11.5
Over/Under 179

I am going to take the Blazers and the over. In case you didn't hear Gerald Wallace is in the hospital with a partially collapsed lung and broken rib from last night's game against the Lakers. All of the other Bobcats played the Lakers in a double overtime game. I expect them to come out flat tonight, and the Blazers fired up to avenge their loss to the Bobcats in Charlotte.

Clippers Preview

Tonight’s game versus the Clippers should be an easy one. Granted, I was saying the same thing going into our game versus them earlier this year, and we ended up losing in overtime. Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself tonight.

The Clip show will be without Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, Zach Randolph, possibly Marcus Camby, and Brian Skinner. That leaves them basically with Eric Gordon and Al Thornton to shoot till their hearts content. If we can somewhat contain these two tonight, we should be alright.

On the Blazers injury front, it was announced today that Steve Blake has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game. My guess is that he will not play but it is definitely good news and a sign that he should be back soon. My hope is he is back before our division matchup with Utah on Saturday.

Keys to the Game

1. Get out Early and Never Look Back

LA is a team that will quit if you get a big lead on them. So let’s get out early and put this game away in the first half.

2. Oden Needs to Stay Out of Foul Trouble

If Oden stays out of foul trouble, he should have a hay day tonight on the boards. No one will be able to stop him, so he needs to take advantage like he did against Milwaukee and Washington.

3. Contain Gordon and Thornton

And we don’t even have to do an amazing job at this, just a decent one.

Gambler’s Corner

Blazers -10.5
Over/Under 187

I am taking the Blazers and the over. I think the Blazers are getting pretty good at putting away teams that they should. So I feel confident in my pick.